Giants vs Eagles — Week 10, 2020
The Giants took over leading 24-17 with 4:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 36, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Giants 27, Eagles 17. Giants won 27-17 — the drive scored.
Giants ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 36, 4:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.8% for Giants. Our model starts at 91.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:52) (Shotgun) 22-W.Gallman up the middle to NYG 36 for no gain (21-J.Mills).
- (4:10) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton ran ob at PHI 24 for 40 yards [96-D.Barnett].
- (4:03) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 87-S.Shepard to PHI 27 for -3 yards (49-A.Singleton).
- (3:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-W.Gallman up the middle to PHI 23 for 4 yards (57-T.Edwards; 49-A.Singleton).
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 22-W.Gallman up the middle to PHI 26 for -3 yards (23-R.McLeod).
- (3:11) 5-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.32 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.64 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.32 pts |
| Outside run | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.63 pts |
| Quick out | -1.03 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.11 pts |
| QB keep | -1.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Play action | -2.68 pts |
| Curl route | -2.97 pts |
| End-around | -4.94 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.02 pts |
| Deep post | -8.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.76 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.64 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.