Commanders vs Eagles — Week 1, 2020
The Commanders took over leading 24-17 with 4:31 left, 1st & 10 at the Eagles 42, 1 timeout in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 27, Eagles 17. Commanders won 27-17 — the drive scored.
Commanders ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Eagles territory, 4:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.8% for Commanders. Our model starts at 93.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:31) 7-D.Haskins pass short right to 15-S.Sims ran ob at PHI 23 for 19 yards (23-R.McLeod).
- (4:22) 34-P.Barber right end to PHI 22 for 1 yard (91-F.Cox).
- (3:39) 34-P.Barber right tackle to PHI 22 for no gain (54-S.Bradley).
- (3:33) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass incomplete short middle to 82-L.Thomas (34-C.LeBlanc) [94-J.Sweat].
- (3:29) 3-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.28 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.87 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.28 pts |
| Outside run | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.56 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.68 pts |
| Quick out | -1.07 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.12 pts |
| QB keep | -1.31 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Play action | -2.78 pts |
| Curl route | -3.11 pts |
| End-around | -5.05 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.17 pts |
| Deep post | -8.81 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.96 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.87 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.