Steelers vs Ravens — Week 8, 2020
The Steelers took over leading 28-24 with 1:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 6, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 28, Ravens 24. Steelers won 28-24 — the drive turned it over.
Steelers ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 6, 1:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 86.6% for Steelers. Our model starts at 85.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:57) 30-J.Conner left end to PIT 9 for 3 yards (93-C.Campbell).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 18-D.Johnson to PIT 15 for 6 yards (24-M.Peters).
- (1:46) 65-J.Hawkins reported in as eligible. 30-J.Conner up the middle to PIT 15 for no gain (93-C.Campbell).
- (:59) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to BAL 37, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.81 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.12 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.81 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.86 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.96 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.29 pts |
| Quick out | -1.56 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.59 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.60 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.75 pts |
| QB keep | -1.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.00 pts |
| Play action | -3.31 pts |
| Curl route | -3.45 pts |
| End-around | -5.08 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.23 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.02 pts |
| Deep post | -7.88 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.68 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.12 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.