Bills vs Raiders — Week 4, 2020
The Bills took over leading 30-23 with 1:28 left, 1st & 10 at the Raiders 43, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Bills 30, Raiders 23. Bills won 30-23 — the drive time expired.
Bills ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Raiders territory, 1:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 99.2% for Bills. Our model starts at 98.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:28) 26-D.Singletary left guard to LV 45 for -2 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).
- (1:24) 26-D.Singletary left end to LV 34 for 11 yards (25-E.Harris).
- (:37) 17-J.Allen kneels to LV 35 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.50 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.79 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.95 pts |
| Quick out | -1.29 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.30 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.31 pts |
| QB keep | -1.70 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.73 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.78 pts |
| Play action | -3.19 pts |
| Curl route | -3.63 pts |
| End-around | -5.64 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.71 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.67 pts |
| Deep post | -9.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.62 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.