Broncos vs Panthers — Week 14, 2020
The Broncos took over leading 32-27 with 3:24 left, 1st & 10 at their own 7, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 32, Panthers 27. Broncos won 32-27 — the drive turned it over.
Broncos ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 7, 3:24 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.0% for Broncos. Our model starts at 85.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:24) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle to DEN 8 for 1 yard (31-J.Burris).
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle to DEN 4 for -4 yards (21-J.Chinn, 97-Y.Gross-Matos).
- (3:15) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 25-M.Gordon to DEN 5 for 1 yard (21-J.Chinn; 25-T.Pride) [95-D.Brown].
- (3:00) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to CAR 37, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 14-P.Cooper to 50 for 13 yards (97-J.Attaochu). PENALTY on CAR-30-N.Jamerson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 37.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.87 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.24 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.87 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.94 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.28 pts |
| Quick out | -1.55 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.58 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.59 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
| QB keep | -1.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.91 pts |
| Play action | -3.20 pts |
| Curl route | -3.39 pts |
| End-around | -5.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.26 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.06 pts |
| Deep post | -8.08 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.70 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.24 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.