Colts vs Packers — Week 11, 2020
The Colts took over leading 31-28 with 3:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Colts 31, Packers 31. Tied 31-31 — the drive turned it over.
Colts ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 34, 3:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.8% for Colts. Our model starts at 80.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 83-M.Johnson to IND 48 for 14 yards (23-J.Alexander).
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right end to IND 48 for no gain (54-K.Martin). Penalty on IND-64-M.Glowinski, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 20-J.Wilkins up the middle to IND 49 for 1 yard (52-R.Gary). Penalty on IND-14-Z.Pascal, Illegal Motion, declined.
- (2:04) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 20-J.Wilkins to GB 36 for 15 yards (58-C.Kirksey).
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 21-N.Hines to GB 23 for 13 yards (23-J.Alexander).
- (1:51) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 84-J.Doyle (23-J.Alexander).
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 20-J.Wilkins up the middle to GB 39 for 4 yards (97-K.Clark).
- (1:36) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at GB 46 for -7 yards (55-Z.Smith). FUMBLES (55-Z.Smith), RECOVERED by GB-58-C.Kirksey at GB 29. 58-C.Kirksey for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short middle to 81-M.Alie-Cox (55-Z.Smith) [55-Z.Smith].
- (1:33) 8-R.Sanchez punts 33 yards to GB 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-46-L.Rhodes.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.68 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.77 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.68 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.30 pts |
| Outside run | +0.26 pts |
| QB keep | -0.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.30 pts |
| Quick out | -0.30 pts |
| Inside run | -0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.51 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.18 pts |
| Curl route | -1.39 pts |
| Play action | -1.48 pts |
| End-around | -3.84 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.88 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.56 pts |
| Deep post | -6.48 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.10 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.77 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.