Bears vs Lions — Week 13, 2020
The Bears took over leading 30-27 with 2:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Bears 30, Lions 34. Lions won 34-30 — the drive turnover.
Bears ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 11, 2:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 81.4% for Bears. Our model starts at 79.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:13) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to CHI 14 for 3 yards (97-N.Williams; 59-R.Ragland).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky scrambles right guard to CHI 17 for 3 yards (97-N.Williams).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 9 for -8 yards (95-R.Okwara). FUMBLES (95-R.Okwara), RECOVERED by DET-91-J.Penisini at CHI 7.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.87 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.87 pts |
| Outside run | -0.83 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -1.05 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.20 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.28 pts |
| Quick out | -1.65 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.69 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.72 pts |
| QB keep | -1.80 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.88 pts |
| Curl route | -2.42 pts |
| Play action | -2.50 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.42 pts |
| End-around | -4.92 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.10 pts |
| Deep post | -6.65 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.63 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.