Cardinals vs Bills — Week 10, 2020
The Cardinals took over leading 26-23 with 4:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 41, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 32, Bills 30. Cardinals won 32-30 — the drive turned it over.
Cardinals ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 41, 4:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 81.1% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 78.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:31) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 10-D.Hopkins.
- (4:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 10-D.Hopkins (91-E.Oliver).
- (4:23) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 35 for -6 yards (24-T.Johnson).
- (3:43) 4-A.Lee punts 43 yards to BUF 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 22 for no gain (28-C.Washington).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.77 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.67 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.77 pts |
| Outside run | +0.16 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.13 pts |
| QB keep | -0.27 pts |
| Inside run | -0.44 pts |
| Quick out | -0.44 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| Curl route | -1.53 pts |
| Play action | -1.60 pts |
| End-around | -3.82 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.95 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.61 pts |
| Deep post | -6.46 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.05 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.67 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.