Browns vs Ravens — Week 14, 2020
The Browns took over trailing 42-35 with 1:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
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What really happened
Final: Browns 42, Ravens 47. Ravens won 47-42 — the drive scored.
Browns ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 1:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 11.6% for Browns. Our model starts at 7.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones pushed ob at BAL 45 for 30 yards (33-D.Harris). BAL-33-D.Harris was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 80-J.Landry pushed ob at BAL 38 for 7 yards (41-A.Levine).
- (1:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 27-K.Hunt to BAL 22 for 16 yards (48-P.Queen).
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 27-K.Hunt for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.95 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.92 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.95 pts |
| Curl route | +0.85 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.57 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.50 pts |
| QB keep | +0.41 pts |
| Play action | +0.36 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.30 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.03 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.23 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.30 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| End-around | -0.84 pts |
| Spike it | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -0.87 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.92 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.