Commanders vs Steelers — Week 13, 2020
The Commanders took over tied at 17 with 4:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 23, Steelers 17. Commanders won 23-17 — the drive scored.
Commanders ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 28, 4:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.6% for Commanders. Our model starts at 55.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:53) (Shotgun) 34-P.Barber left tackle to WAS 31 for 3 yards (90-T.Watt, 34-Te.Edmunds).
- (4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 41-J.McKissic to WAS 38 for 7 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick; 51-A.Williamson).
- (3:48) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 41-J.McKissic to WAS 44 for 6 yards (51-A.Williamson).
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 83-I.Wright (97-C.Heyward).
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 89-C.Sims to PIT 27 for 29 yards (20-C.Sutton).
- (2:21) 34-P.Barber up the middle to PIT 25 for 2 yards (94-T.Alualu; 98-V.Williams).
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 89-C.Sims to PIT 27 for -2 yards (51-A.Williamson, 31-J.Layne).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short right to 89-C.Sims (34-Te.Edmunds).
- (2:07) 3-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on PIT-20-C.Sutton, Defensive Offside, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.70 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.65 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.70 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.56 pts |
| QB keep | +0.50 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.32 pts |
| Quick out | +0.02 pts |
| Curl route | +0.01 pts |
| Outside run | -0.05 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.35 pts |
| Play action | -0.51 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.70 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.69 pts |
| End-around | -2.78 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Deep post | -3.44 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.59 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.65 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.