Seahawks vs Cowboys — Week 3, 2020
The Seahawks took over trailing 31-30 with 3:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 38, Cowboys 31. Seahawks won 38-31 — the drive scored.
Seahawks ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 3:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 50.0% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 48.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 88-G.Olsen to SEA 46 for 21 yards (27-T.Diggs).
- (3:15) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett ran ob at DAL 49 for 5 yards.
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson left guard to DAL 47 for 2 yards (72-T.Hill). SEA-32-C.Carson was injured during the play.
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 14-D.Metcalf.
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 88-G.Olsen to DAL 36 for 11 yards (25-X.Woods).
- (2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-T.Homer right guard to DAL 29 for 7 yards (58-A.Smith).
- (2:00) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-R.Wilson pass to 86-J.Hollister is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.10 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.31 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.10 pts |
| QB keep | +0.93 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.86 pts |
| Curl route | +0.82 pts |
| Quick out | +0.35 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.22 pts |
| Play action | +0.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Outside run | -0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.73 pts |
| Deep post | -2.00 pts |
| End-around | -2.37 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.50 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.31 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.