Cowboys vs Falcons — Week 2, 2020
The Cowboys took over trailing 39-37 with 1:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 46, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 40, Falcons 39. Cowboys won 40-39 — the drive scored.
Cowboys ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. Near midfield, 1:48 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.9% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 45.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Gallup.
- (1:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to ATL 30 for 24 yards (27-D.Kazee).
- (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott left tackle to ATL 28 for 2 yards (93-A.Bailey).
- (:42) 21-E.Elliott right tackle to ATL 28 for no gain (91-J.Tuioti-Mariner).
- (:05) 4-D.Prescott spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:04) 2-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.99 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.16 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.99 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.85 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.76 pts |
| QB keep | +1.65 pts |
| Play action | +0.97 pts |
| Quick out | +0.92 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.77 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.46 pts |
| Deep post | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -1.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| End-around | -2.07 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.53 pts |
| Spike it | -2.98 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.16 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.