Giants vs Cowboys — Week 5, 2020
The Giants took over tied at 34 with 1:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Giants 34, Cowboys 37. Cowboys won 37-34 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 24, 1:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.7% for Giants. Our model starts at 55.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Slayton (27-T.Diggs).
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 86-D.Slayton pushed ob at NYG 38 for 14 yards (27-T.Diggs) [96-N.Gallimore].
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 33-D.Lewis to NYG 37 for -1 yards (54-J.Smith).
- (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 33-D.Lewis pushed ob at NYG 39 for 2 yards (23-D.Thompson).
- (1:07) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 33-D.Lewis.
- (1:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to DAL 12, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.69 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.49 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.47 pts |
| QB keep | +1.47 pts |
| Curl route | +1.44 pts |
| Quick out | +0.78 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.64 pts |
| Play action | +0.58 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.30 pts |
| Outside run | +0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.30 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.50 pts |
| Deep post | -1.85 pts |
| End-around | -2.32 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.55 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.49 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.