Rams vs Buccaneers — Week 11, 2020
The Rams took over tied at 24 with 3:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Rams 27, Buccaneers 24. Rams won 27-24 — the drive scored.
Rams ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 3:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.1% for Rams. Our model starts at 53.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:53) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 17-R.Woods pushed ob at LA 48 for 23 yards (31-A.Winfield).
- (3:45) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Reynolds.
- (3:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 17-R.Woods to TB 43 for 9 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting).
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 10-C.Kupp ran ob at TB 24 for 19 yards [45-D.White].
- (2:56) 27-D.Henderson left tackle to TB 22 for 2 yards (54-L.David).
- (2:51) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right.
- (2:46) 34-M.Brown left end to TB 22 for no gain (92-W.Gholston; 23-S.Murphy-Bunting).
- (2:40) 1-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.08 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.08 pts |
| QB keep | +0.89 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.78 pts |
| Curl route | +0.61 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.31 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.19 pts |
| Outside run | +0.10 pts |
| Play action | -0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.78 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.11 pts |
| End-around | -2.48 pts |
| Deep post | -2.63 pts |
| Spike it | -2.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.02 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.