Bengals vs Colts — Week 6, 2020
The Bengals took over trailing 31-27 with 3:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 27, Colts 31. Colts won 31-27 — the drive turnover.
Bengals ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 26, 3:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.9% for Bengals. Our model starts at 27.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 18-A.Green to CIN 37 for 11 yards (27-X.Rhodes).
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 85-T.Higgins to CIN 45 for 8 yards (58-B.Okereke).
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard up the middle to 50 for 5 yards (37-K.Willis, 99-D.Buckner).
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard up the middle to 50 for no gain (97-A.Muhammad).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle to 89-D.Sample (58-B.Okereke).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles up the middle to IND 49 for 1 yard (37-K.Willis).
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 18-A.Green to IND 39 for 10 yards (37-K.Willis).
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 25-G.Bernard to IND 37 for 2 yards (54-A.Walker).
- (:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at IND 35 for 2 yards (23-K.Moore).
- (:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon at IND 19. 32-J.Blackmon to IND 23 for 4 yards (85-T.Higgins).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.28 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.28 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.99 pts |
| QB keep | +0.90 pts |
| Play action | +0.48 pts |
| Quick out | +0.40 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.29 pts |
| Deep post | +0.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -1.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.57 pts |
| End-around | -1.69 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.80 pts |
| Spike it | -2.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.