Chargers vs Jets — Week 11, 2020
The Chargers took over leading 34-26 with 3:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 34, Jets 28. Chargers won 34-28 — the drive turned it over.
Chargers ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 24, 3:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.8% for Chargers. Our model starts at 93.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:54) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen to LAC 25 for 1 yard (32-A.Davis; 44-H.Langi).
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Allen.
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen to LAC 24 for -1 yards (37-B.Hall).
- (3:00) 1-T.Long punts 56 yards to NYJ 20, Center-45-C.Mazza. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 36 for 16 yards (46-M.Jefferson). PENALTY on LAC-45-C.Mazza, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 36.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.17 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.17 pts |
| Outside run | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.69 pts |
| Quick out | -1.08 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.13 pts |
| QB keep | -1.34 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
| Play action | -2.81 pts |
| Curl route | -3.15 pts |
| End-around | -5.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.32 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.21 pts |
| Deep post | -8.89 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.04 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.