Raiders vs Chiefs — Week 5, 2020
The Raiders took over leading 40-32 with 3:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 1 timeout in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 40, Chiefs 32. Raiders won 40-32 — the drive time expired.
Raiders ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 35, 3:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.7% for Raiders. Our model starts at 94.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:55) 28-J.Jacobs right end to LV 39 for 4 yards (53-A.Hitchens).
- (3:48) 28-J.Jacobs right guard to LV 46 for 7 yards (50-W.Gay).
- (3:41) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to LV 48 for 2 yards (57-A.Okafor).
- (2:57) 28-J.Jacobs right guard to KC 47 for 5 yards (53-A.Hitchens).
- (2:11) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 12-Z.Jones to KC 45 for 2 yards (21-B.Breeland).
- (2:00) 4-D.Carr up the middle to KC 44 for 1 yard (91-D.Nnadi).
- (1:18) 4-D.Carr kneels to KC 45 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 4-D.Carr kneels to KC 46 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.04 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.14 pts |
| Outside run | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.60 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.72 pts |
| Quick out | -1.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.38 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -2.85 pts |
| Curl route | -3.21 pts |
| End-around | -5.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.37 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.27 pts |
| Deep post | -8.97 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.04 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.