Texans vs Colts — Week 13, 2020
The Texans took over trailing 26-20 with 2:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Texans 20, Colts 26. Colts won 26-20 — the drive turnover.
Texans ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 20, 2:43 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.6% for Texans. Our model starts at 10.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 17-C.Hansen.
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 88-J.Akins to HOU 29 for 9 yards (54-A.Walker).
- (2:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 13-B.Cooks ran ob at IND 48 for 23 yards (32-J.Blackmon).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 16-K.Coutee to IND 30 for 18 yards (23-K.Moore) [90-G.Stewart].
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 25-Du.Johnson to IND 22 for 8 yards (54-A.Walker).
- (1:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 16-K.Coutee to IND 6 for 16 yards (38-T.Carrie).
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 25-Du.Johnson up the middle to IND 2 for 4 yards (54-A.Walker).
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 7, touched at IND 7, RECOVERED by IND-54-A.Walker at IND 9.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.98 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.98 pts |
| Deep post | +0.90 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.68 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.62 pts |
| QB keep | +0.52 pts |
| Play action | +0.42 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.25 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.24 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.28 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.36 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.94 pts |
| End-around | -0.96 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.02 pts |
| Spike it | -1.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.