Broncos vs Chiefs — Week 13, 2020
The Broncos took over trailing 22-16 with 1:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 16, Chiefs 22. Chiefs won 22-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Broncos ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 1:04 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.8% for Broncos. Our model starts at 7.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete short left to 10-J.Jeudy (95-C.Jones).
- (:59) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 10-J.Jeudy to DEN 30 for 5 yards (38-L.Sneed).
- (:37) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete deep middle to 13-K.Hamler [55-F.Clark].
- (:33) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep right intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at DEN 49. 32-T.Mathieu to DEN 49 for no gain (10-J.Jeudy).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.13 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.13 pts |
| Curl route | +0.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.57 pts |
| QB keep | +0.47 pts |
| Play action | +0.43 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.22 pts |
| Flea flicker | +0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.21 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| End-around | -0.84 pts |
| Spike it | -0.87 pts |
| Inside run | -0.89 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.