Eagles vs Bengals — Week 3, 2020
The Eagles took over trailing 23-16 with 3:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 23, Bengals 23. Tied 23-23 — the drive scored.
Eagles ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.8% for Eagles. Our model starts at 10.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 26-M.Sanders to PHI 23 for -2 yards (57-G.Pratt).
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle to PHI 48 for 6 yards (96-C.Dunlap).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 82-J.Hightower to CIN 32 for 11 yards (22-W.Jackson III).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 35-B.Scott.
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 84-G.Ward to CIN 28 for 4 yards (21-M.Alexander).
- (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz scrambles up the middle to CIN 19 for 9 yards (55-L.Wilson).
- (1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left tackle to CIN 12 for 7 yards (58-C.Lawson; 30-J.Bates III).
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 16-D.Burnett (96-C.Dunlap).
- (:56) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 84-G.Ward to CIN 7 for 5 yards (21-M.Alexander).
- (:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz pushed ob at CIN 7 for no gain (23-D.Phillips).
- (:30) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz scrambles right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.88 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.10 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.88 pts |
| Deep post | +0.79 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.60 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.55 pts |
| QB keep | +0.46 pts |
| Play action | +0.36 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.19 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.35 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.94 pts |
| End-around | -0.96 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.02 pts |
| Spike it | -1.10 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.