Commanders vs Giants — Week 6, 2020
The Commanders took over trailing 20-13 with 3:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 19, Giants 20. Giants won 20-19 — the drive scored.
Commanders ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.4% for Commanders. Our model starts at 11.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass short right to 83-I.Wright to WAS 30 for 5 yards (23-L.Ryan).
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass incomplete short right to 82-L.Thomas.
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 48 for 18 yards (20-J.Love) [99-L.Williams].
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 48 for 5 yards (23-L.Ryan).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass short left to 80-D.Inman to NYG 49 for 3 yards (23-L.Ryan).
- (1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass short middle to 41-J.McKissic to NYG 36 for 13 yards (54-B.Martinez).
- (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass short left to 83-I.Wright to NYG 30 for 6 yards (55-D.Mayo). WAS-83-I.Wright was injured during the play.
- (1:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass short middle to 41-J.McKissic to NYG 22 for 8 yards (54-B.Martinez).
- (:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (44-M.Golden).
- (:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass deep left to 89-C.Sims for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-K.Allen pass to 17-T.McLaurin is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.90 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.23 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.90 pts |
| Deep post | +0.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.58 pts |
| QB keep | +0.48 pts |
| Play action | +0.35 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.14 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.43 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.50 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| End-around | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.09 pts |
| Spike it | -1.23 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.