Browns vs Jaguars — Week 12, 2020
The Browns took over leading 27-25 with 2:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Browns 27, Jaguars 25. Browns won 27-25 — the drive time expired.
Browns ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 25, 2:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 81.6% for Browns. Our model starts at 72.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:14) 24-N.Chubb right end to CLE 37 for 12 yards (43-J.Giles-Harris). JAX-52-D.Hamilton was injured during the play. He is Out.
- (2:00) 24-N.Chubb right end to CLE 41 for 4 yards (96-A.Gotsis).
- (1:55) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles left end to CLE 45 for 4 yards (40-B.Watson).
- (1:37) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 24-N.Chubb to CLE 48 for 13 yards (47-J.Schobert). JAX-40-B.Watson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (1:25) 6-B.Mayfield kneels to CLE 47 for -1 yards.
- (:43) 6-B.Mayfield kneels to CLE 46 for -1 yards.
- (:26) 6-B.Mayfield kneels to CLE 45 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.31 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.33 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.31 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.93 pts |
| QB keep | +0.59 pts |
| Outside run | +0.45 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.45 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.13 pts |
| Curl route | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Inside run | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Play action | -0.64 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.10 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.90 pts |
| End-around | -3.19 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.46 pts |
| Deep post | -4.88 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.86 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.33 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.