Steelers vs Ravens — Week 12, 2020
The Steelers took over leading 19-14 with 2:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 19, Ravens 14. Steelers won 19-14 — the drive time expired.
Steelers ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 13, 2:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.0% for Steelers. Our model starts at 87.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 18-D.Johnson to PIT 16 for 3 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), ball out of bounds at PIT 14.
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 13-J.Washington to PIT 17 for 3 yards (33-D.Harris).
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 13-J.Washington to PIT 33 for 16 yards (36-C.Clark; 54-T.Bowser).
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 24-B.Snell left guard to PIT 46 for 13 yards (36-C.Clark, 45-J.Ferguson).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 24-B.Snell right end to BAL 47 for 7 yards (24-M.Peters).
- (2:00) 24-B.Snell left guard to BAL 45 for 2 yards (95-D.Wolfe; 69-A.Crawford).
- (1:19) 24-B.Snell left guard to BAL 44 for 1 yard (45-J.Ferguson). Official measurement. The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (:37) 69-K.Dotson reported in as eligible. 7-B.Roethlisberger kneels to BAL 45 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.74 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.74 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.80 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.87 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.90 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.38 pts |
| Quick out | -1.41 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.45 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.46 pts |
| QB keep | -1.53 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.71 pts |
| Play action | -2.68 pts |
| Curl route | -2.86 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.97 pts |
| End-around | -4.99 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.78 pts |
| Deep post | -8.00 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.48 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.