Jaguars vs Colts — Week 1, 2020
The Jaguars took over leading 24-20 with 4:24 left, 1st & 10 at the Colts 31, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 27, Colts 20. Jaguars won 27-20 — the drive scored.
Jaguars ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. In Colts territory, 4:24 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 86.1% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 88.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:24) 30-J.Robinson right end to IND 32 for -1 yards (99-D.Buckner; 90-G.Stewart).
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 10-L.Shenault right end to IND 27 for 5 yards (90-G.Stewart).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at IND 28 for -1 yards (96-D.Autry).
- (2:54) 4-J.Lambo 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.64 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.64 pts |
| Outside run | -0.07 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Quick out | -0.81 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.86 pts |
| QB keep | -0.90 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.91 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.34 pts |
| Play action | -2.33 pts |
| Curl route | -2.53 pts |
| Field goal | -3.49 pts |
| End-around | -4.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.81 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.62 pts |
| Deep post | -8.08 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.30 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.