Bears vs Buccaneers — Week 5, 2020
The Bears took over trailing 19-17 with 4:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Bears 20, Buccaneers 19. Bears won 20-19 — the drive turned it over.
Bears ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 4:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.6% for Bears. Our model starts at 40.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:49) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Mooney (35-J.Dean).
- (4:45) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles sacked at CHI 16 for -9 yards (92-W.Gholston).
- (3:53) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 17-A.Miller to CHI 33 for 2 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting).
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete deep left to 11-D.Mooney (35-J.Dean).
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete short middle to 12-A.Robinson (93-N.Suh) [93-N.Suh].
- (2:59) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 59 yards to TB 8, Center-48-P.Scales. 85-J.Mickens to TB 16 for 8 yards (83-J.Wims; 84-C.Patterson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.89 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.65 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.89 pts |
| QB keep | +0.76 pts |
| Curl route | +0.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.68 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.10 pts |
| Play action | +0.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.18 pts |
| Outside run | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.68 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.49 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Deep post | -1.58 pts |
| End-around | -2.19 pts |
| Spike it | -2.86 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.65 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.