Chiefs vs Raiders — Week 11, 2020
The Chiefs took over trailing 31-28 with 1:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 35, Raiders 31. Chiefs won 35-31 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.0% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 26.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:43) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill to KC 35 for 10 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).
- (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right [38-J.Heath].
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 44 for 9 yards (20-D.Arnette).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 17-M.Hardman to LV 40 for 16 yards (26-N.Lawson).
- (:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to LV 25 for 15 yards (24-J.Abram).
- (:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 31-Darr.Williams to LV 22 for 3 yards (24-J.Abram).
- (:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.12 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.64 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.55 pts |
| QB keep | +1.39 pts |
| Deep post | +1.23 pts |
| Play action | +1.08 pts |
| Quick out | +0.78 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.41 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.34 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.98 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.04 pts |
| Inside run | -1.34 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| End-around | -1.58 pts |
| Spike it | -2.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.