Giants vs Bears — Week 2, 2020
The Giants took over trailing 17-13 with 2:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Giants 13, Bears 17. Bears won 17-13 — the drive time expired.
Giants ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 40, 2:02 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 26.4% for Giants. Our model starts at 25.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:02) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 19-D.Ratley.
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 33-D.Lewis.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 88-E.Engram to CHI 38 for 22 yards (24-B.Skrine).
- (1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Slayton.
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones scrambles right end to CHI 36 for 2 yards (39-E.Jackson).
- (1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 15-G.Tate to CHI 30 for 6 yards (24-B.Skrine). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 15-G.Tate to CHI 32 for 4 yards (24-B.Skrine).
- (:45) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 33-D.Lewis to CHI 26 for 6 yards (26-D.Bush).
- (:32) 8-D.Jones spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:31) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Slayton.
- (:26) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 18-C.Board pushed ob at CHI 17 for 9 yards (23-K.Fuller).
- (:21) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 86-D.Slayton to CHI 14 for 3 yards (58-R.Smith).
- (:09) 8-D.Jones spiked the ball to stop the clock.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.01 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.46 pts |
| QB keep | +1.30 pts |
| Deep post | +1.18 pts |
| Play action | +1.01 pts |
| Quick out | +0.73 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.37 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.31 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.95 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.00 pts |
| Inside run | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| End-around | -1.55 pts |
| Spike it | -2.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.