Chargers vs Raiders — Week 9, 2020
The Chargers took over trailing 31-26 with 4:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 26, Raiders 31. Raiders won 31-26 — the drive time expired.
Chargers ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 4:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 26.4% for Chargers. Our model starts at 22.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen to LAC 30 for 5 yards (29-L.Joyner; 31-I.Johnson).
- (3:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 31-K.Ballage to LAC 34 for 4 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski; 97-M.Collins).
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen to LAC 42 for 8 yards (31-I.Johnson).
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 27-J.Kelley up the middle to LAC 41 for 9 yards (29-L.Joyner).
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 27-J.Kelley to LAC 46 for 5 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to LV 49 for 5 yards (42-C.Littleton).
- (1:25) (Shotgun) 31-K.Ballage right end to LV 45 for 4 yards (24-J.Abram).
- (1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 31-K.Ballage to LV 34 for 11 yards (29-L.Joyner; 50-N.Morrow).
- (:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 27-J.Kelley to LV 29 for 5 yards (50-N.Morrow).
- (:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 27-J.Kelley ran ob at LV 24 for 5 yards (24-J.Abram). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 27-J.Kelley to LV 20 for 4 yards (50-N.Morrow).
- (:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 81-M.Williams to LV 4 for 16 yards (24-J.Abram).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.00 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.00 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.74 pts |
| QB keep | +0.68 pts |
| Play action | +0.33 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.18 pts |
| Deep post | +0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.30 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.14 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.35 pts |
| End-around | -1.50 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.52 pts |
| Spike it | -2.05 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.