Cowboys vs Vikings — Week 11, 2020
The Cowboys took over trailing 28-24 with 4:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 39, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 31, Vikings 28. Cowboys won 31-28 — the drive scored.
Cowboys ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 39, 4:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.0% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 32.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 13-M.Gallup ran ob at DAL 49 for 10 yards (29-K.Boyd).
- (3:56) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to MIN 33 for 18 yards (22-H.Smith; 41-A.Harris).
- (3:15) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short middle to 13-M.Gallup (54-E.Kendricks).
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to MIN 30 for 3 yards (90-J.Holmes).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard right tackle to MIN 29 for 6 yards (90-J.Holmes; 54-E.Kendricks). MIN-90-J.Holmes was injured during the play.
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 19-A.Cooper pushed ob at MIN 19 for 10 yards (20-J.Gladney).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 21-E.Elliott pushed ob at MIN 14 for 5 yards (50-E.Wilson).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to MIN 4 for 10 yards (27-C.Dantzler; 22-H.Smith).
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Schultz (29-K.Boyd).
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott left tackle to MIN 2 for 2 yards (90-J.Holmes).
- (1:43) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 86-D.Schultz for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.32 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.32 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.07 pts |
| QB keep | +1.01 pts |
| Play action | +0.50 pts |
| Quick out | +0.45 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.34 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.03 pts |
| Deep post | -0.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| End-around | -1.80 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.93 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.28 pts |
| Spike it | -2.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.