Bengals vs Chargers — Week 1, 2020
The Bengals took over trailing 16-13 with 3:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 13, Chargers 16. Chargers won 16-13 — the drive missed field goal.
Bengals ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 18, 3:08 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.7% for Bengals. Our model starts at 26.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow up the middle to CIN 25 for 7 yards (54-M.Ingram III).
- (2:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to CIN 29 for 4 yards (56-K.Murray Jr.).
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CIN 37 for 8 yards (26-C.Hayward Jr.).
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 11-J.Ross III to LAC 48 for 15 yards (26-C.Hayward Jr.).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard up the middle to LAC 46 for 7 yards (56-K.Murray Jr.; 42-U.Nwosu).
- (1:40) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 11-J.Ross III ran ob at LAC 37 for 9 yards (26-C.Hayward Jr.). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 11-J.Ross III.
- (1:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 83-T.Boyd to LAC 36 for 10 yards (23-R.Jenkins).
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 18-A.Green.
- (1:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 80-M.Thomas to LAC 24 for 12 yards (42-U.Nwosu).
- (:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 80-M.Thomas to LAC 19 for 5 yards (26-C.Hayward Jr.).
- (:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah to LAC 13 for 6 yards (59-N.Vigil).
- (:19) 9-J.Burrow spiked the ball to stop the clock.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.08 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.79 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.68 pts |
| QB keep | +0.50 pts |
| Play action | +0.27 pts |
| Deep post | +0.17 pts |
| Quick out | +0.03 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.37 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.82 pts |
| Outside run | -0.95 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.09 pts |
| Inside run | -1.56 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.67 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.79 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.79 pts |
| End-around | -1.96 pts |
| Spike it | -2.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.