Panthers vs Chiefs — Week 9, 2020
The Panthers took over trailing 33-31 with 1:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 31, Chiefs 33. Chiefs won 33-31 — the drive missed field goal.
Panthers ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. Backed up at their own 9, 1:26 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.4% for Panthers. Our model starts at 31.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 10-C.Samuel to CAR 18 for 9 yards (23-A.Watts).
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 28-M.Davis to CAR 22 for 9 yards (56-B.Niemann; 32-T.Mathieu).
- (:43) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 28-M.Davis to CAR 28 for 6 yards (23-A.Watts).
- (:25) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 10-C.Samuel to KC 49 for 23 yards (35-C.Ward) [95-C.Jones].
- (:10) 5-T.Bridgewater spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:09) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at KC 49 for no gain (23-A.Watts).
- (:05) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short right to 12-D.Moore (23-A.Watts).
- (:02) 4-J.Slye 67 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-1.02 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-3.85 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -1.02 pts |
| Curl route | -1.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.13 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.24 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.54 pts |
| Quick out | -1.66 pts |
| QB keep | -1.68 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.70 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.75 pts |
| Play action | -1.81 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.86 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.89 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.04 pts |
| Outside run | -2.47 pts |
| Inside run | -2.48 pts |
| Spike it | -2.59 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.81 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.17 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.42 pts |
| End-around | -3.85 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.