Steelers vs Cowboys — Week 9, 2020
The Steelers took over trailing 19-18 with 4:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 24, Cowboys 19. Steelers won 24-19 — the drive scored.
Steelers ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 21, 4:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 43.7% for Steelers. Our model starts at 46.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:11) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster.
- (4:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short right to 11-C.Claypool. Injury update: Trevon Diggs has a left foot injury; his return is questionable.
- (3:58) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 11-C.Claypool to PIT 45 for 9 yards (54-J.Smith).
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 18-D.Johnson to DAL 13 for 42 yards (25-X.Woods).
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 11-C.Claypool pushed ob at DAL 8 for 5 yards (26-J.Lewis).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 85-E.Ebron for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 7-B.Roethlisberger pass to 11-C.Claypool is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.17 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.04 pts |
| QB keep | +0.87 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.80 pts |
| Curl route | +0.78 pts |
| Quick out | +0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.18 pts |
| Play action | +0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.12 pts |
| Outside run | -0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -1.03 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.69 pts |
| Deep post | -1.91 pts |
| End-around | -2.35 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.40 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.17 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.