Lions vs Cardinals — Week 3, 2020
The Lions took over tied at 23 with 4:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Lions 26, Cardinals 23. Lions won 26-23 — the drive scored.
Lions ball, even score — any score wins it. Backed up at their own 9, 4:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 43.4% for Lions. Our model starts at 53.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:49) 28-A.Peterson right tackle to DET 12 for 3 yards (58-J.Hicks).
- (4:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 28-A.Peterson to DET 22 for 10 yards (20-D.Kirkpatrick).
- (3:30) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones to DET 42 for 20 yards (21-P.Peterson).
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to DET 47 for 5 yards (98-C.Peters; 58-J.Hicks).
- (1:52) 28-A.Peterson right end to ARI 49 for 1 yard (55-C.Jones).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-K.Golladay pushed ob at ARI 38 for 11 yards (33-B.Murphy).
- (1:03) 28-A.Peterson up the middle to ARI 38 for no gain (55-C.Jones; 35-C.Riley).
- (:58) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 11-M.Jones to ARI 18 for 20 yards (59-D.Campbell).
- (:12) 79-K.Wiggins reported in as eligible. 9-M.Stafford left end to ARI 21 for -3 yards.
- (:04) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-3-J.Fox.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.66 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.66 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.22 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.62 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.65 pts |
| Outside run | -1.66 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.76 pts |
| QB keep | -1.80 pts |
| Quick out | -1.80 pts |
| Inside run | -1.85 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.86 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.99 pts |
| Curl route | -2.15 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.43 pts |
| Play action | -2.51 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.59 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.99 pts |
| End-around | -4.34 pts |
| Deep post | -4.35 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.80 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.