Jets vs Broncos — Week 4, 2020
The Jets took over trailing 30-28 with 3:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Jets 28, Broncos 37. Broncos won 37-28 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Jets ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 3:08 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 42.7% for Jets. Our model starts at 39.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:08) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles left end pushed ob at NYJ 33 for 8 yards (59-M.Reed).
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 15-C.Hogan (41-D.Bausby).
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 82-J.Crowder to NYJ 43 for 10 yards (29-B.Callahan).
- (2:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 89-C.Herndon.
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 29-K.Ballage ran ob at 50 for 7 yards (47-J.Jewell).
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 16-J.Smith (41-D.Bausby).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at NYJ 43 for -7 yards (55-B.Chubb).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.51 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.51 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.29 pts |
| QB keep | +1.23 pts |
| Play action | +0.60 pts |
| Quick out | +0.60 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.47 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| Outside run | -0.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Deep post | -0.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| End-around | -2.04 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.43 pts |
| Spike it | -2.87 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.