Falcons vs Lions — Week 7, 2020
The Falcons took over trailing 16-14 with 3:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 1 timeout in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 22, Lions 23. Lions won 23-22 — the drive scored.
Falcons ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 24, 3:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.9% for Falcons. Our model starts at 37.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 83-R.Gage to ATL 30 for 6 yards (51-J.Tavai).
- (2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 83-R.Gage to ATL 39 for 9 yards (29-D.Roberts).
- (2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 21-T.Gurley to ATL 47 for 8 yards (58-J.Collins).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 83-R.Gage to DET 37 for 16 yards (29-D.Roberts).
- (1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 83-R.Gage ran ob at DET 21 for 16 yards [90-T.Flowers]. Penalty on DET-24-A.Oruwariye, Defensive Holding, declined.
- (1:31) 21-T.Gurley left guard to DET 13 for 8 yards (58-J.Collins).
- (1:25) 21-T.Gurley left end to DET 12 for 1 yard (44-J.Reeves-Maybin).
- (1:18) 73-M.Gono reported in as eligible. 21-T.Gurley left guard to DET 10 for 2 yards (93-D.Hand). FUMBLES (93-D.Hand), and recovers at DET 10.
- (1:12) 21-T.Gurley left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-M.Ryan pass to 18-C.Ridley is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.57 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.78 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.57 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.32 pts |
| QB keep | +1.24 pts |
| Play action | +0.67 pts |
| Quick out | +0.61 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.48 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.15 pts |
| Outside run | -0.29 pts |
| Deep post | -0.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.12 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| End-around | -1.88 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.16 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.61 pts |
| Spike it | -2.78 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.