49ers vs Chiefs — Week 21, 2019
The 49ers took over trailing 24-20 with 2:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
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What really happened
Final: 49ers 20, Chiefs 31. Chiefs won 31-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Playoff football. 49ers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 15, 2:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.2% for 49ers. Our model starts at 22.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert right tackle to SF 32 for 17 yards (29-K.Fuller).
- (2:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 85-G.Kittle pushed ob at SF 35 for 8 yards (29-K.Fuller, 32-T.Mathieu).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 84-K.Bourne pushed ob at KC 49 for 16 yards (35-C.Ward).
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 19-D.Samuel (95-C.Jones).
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to 84-K.Bourne (29-K.Fuller, 95-C.Jones).
- (1:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete deep middle to 17-E.Sanders [94-T.Suggs].
- (1:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 42 for -9 yards (55-F.Clark).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.43 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-2.41 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.43 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.17 pts |
| Deep post | +0.15 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.10 pts |
| Play action | -0.31 pts |
| QB keep | -0.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.67 pts |
| Quick out | -0.67 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.73 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.95 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.28 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.62 pts |
| Outside run | -1.72 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.72 pts |
| Spike it | -2.07 pts |
| Inside run | -2.15 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.30 pts |
| End-around | -2.41 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.