Rams vs Buccaneers — Week 4, 2019
The Rams took over trailing 48-40 with 2:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Rams 40, Buccaneers 55. Buccaneers won 55-40 — the drive turnover.
Rams ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 25, 2:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.1% for Rams. Our model starts at 6.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-C.Kupp to LA 30 for 5 yards (36-M.Stewart).
- (2:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods ran ob at LA 39 for 9 yards.
- (2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-C.Kupp to 50 for 11 yards (36-M.Stewart) [93-N.Suh].
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods to TB 48 for 2 yards (54-L.David; 36-M.Stewart).
- (1:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 18-C.Kupp (36-M.Stewart). The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (1:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 12-B.Cooks to TB 41 for 7 yards (33-C.Davis).
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 43 for -11 yards (58-S.Barrett). FUMBLES (58-S.Barrett) [58-S.Barrett], RECOVERED by TB-93-N.Suh at LA 37. 93-N.Suh for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.67 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.67 pts |
| Curl route | +0.62 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.41 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.36 pts |
| QB keep | +0.29 pts |
| Play action | +0.24 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.19 pts |
| Quick out | +0.14 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.08 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.20 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.25 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| End-around | -0.69 pts |
| Spike it | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.70 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.