Bears vs Packers — Week 15, 2019
The Bears took over trailing 21-13 with 4:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 5, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Bears 13, Packers 21. Packers won 21-13 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bears ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. Backed up at their own 5, 4:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 7.1% for Bears. Our model starts at 8.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short right to 12-A.Robinson.
- (4:07) (Shotgun) 29-T.Cohen left tackle to CHI 7 for 2 yards (55-Z.Smith).
- (3:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 12-A.Robinson to CHI 21 for 14 yards (23-J.Alexander).
- (3:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 29-T.Cohen to CHI 36 for 15 yards (23-J.Alexander).
- (2:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 29-T.Cohen to CHI 43 for 7 yards (50-B.Martinez).
- (2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-T.Cohen up the middle to GB 49 for 8 yards (31-A.Amos).
- (2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep left to 12-A.Robinson.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short middle to 17-A.Miller (38-T.Williams).
- (1:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short right to 49-J.Horsted.
- (1:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep middle to 12-A.Robinson. The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-0.51 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.47 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Deep post | -0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.62 pts |
| Quick out | -0.65 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.66 pts |
| QB keep | -0.67 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.71 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.75 pts |
| Curl route | -0.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.82 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.92 pts |
| Spike it | -0.95 pts |
| Play action | -0.96 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.98 pts |
| Inside run | -1.12 pts |
| Outside run | -1.15 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.22 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.38 pts |
| End-around | -1.47 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.