Cowboys vs Jets — Week 6, 2019
The Cowboys took over trailing 24-16 with 3:23 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 22, Jets 24. Jets won 24-22 — the drive scored.
Cowboys ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 25, 3:23 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.3% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 8.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 13-M.Gallup to DAL 32 for 7 yards (27-D.Roberts).
- (2:57) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 89-B.Jarwin to DAL 37 for 5 yards (46-N.Hewitt).
- (2:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 29 for -8 yards (48-J.Jenkins).
- (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 11-C.Wilson to DAL 39 for 10 yards (34-B.Poole).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 21-E.Elliott pushed ob at NYJ 36 for 12 yards (46-N.Hewitt). Penalty on NYJ-34-B.Poole, Illegal Contact, declined.
- (1:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 21-E.Elliott to NYJ 19 for 3 yards (33-J.Adams). PENALTY on DAL-13-M.Gallup, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 19.
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left end to NYJ 8 for 8 yards (27-D.Roberts).
- (:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 10-T.Austin (20-M.Maye).
- (:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 21-E.Elliott to NYJ 4 for 4 yards (53-B.Cashman).
- (:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-D.Prescott pass to 82-J.Witten is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.71 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.93 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.71 pts |
| Deep post | +0.65 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.47 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.43 pts |
| QB keep | +0.35 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.14 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.31 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.84 pts |
| End-around | -0.86 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.90 pts |
| Spike it | -0.93 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.