Panthers vs Packers — Week 10, 2019
The Panthers took over trailing 24-16 with 2:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 16, Packers 24. Packers won 24-16 — the drive time expired.
Panthers ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 11, 2:25 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 4.8% for Panthers. Our model starts at 5.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 10-C.Samuel pushed ob at CAR 26 for 15 yards (20-K.King).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Samuel (23-J.Alexander) [55-Z.Smith].
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey left tackle to CAR 34 for 8 yards (35-I.Campbell).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle to 12-D.Moore to CAR 41 for 7 yards (23-J.Alexander).
- (1:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey ran ob at CAR 43 for 2 yards (23-J.Alexander).
- (1:35) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep right to 88-G.Olsen pushed ob at GB 39 for 18 yards (31-A.Amos).
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Samuel.
- (1:25) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 88-G.Olsen pushed ob at GB 34 for 5 yards (31-A.Amos).
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle to 88-G.Olsen to GB 25 for 9 yards (35-I.Campbell).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete short middle [91-P.Smith].
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 12-D.Moore (20-K.King).
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete short right [91-P.Smith].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.06 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.16 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.06 pts |
| Curl route | -0.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.34 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.41 pts |
| Play action | -0.42 pts |
| Quick out | -0.51 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.52 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.52 pts |
| QB keep | -0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.54 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.59 pts |
| Spike it | -0.66 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.94 pts |
| Outside run | -0.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.99 pts |
| End-around | -1.16 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.