Cowboys vs Eagles — Week 16, 2019
The Cowboys took over trailing 17-9 with 4:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 12, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 9, Eagles 17. Eagles won 17-9 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cowboys ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 12, 4:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 7.0% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 9.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 18-R.Cobb to DAL 25 for 13 yards (27-M.Jenkins).
- (4:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 10-T.Austin.
- (3:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 18-R.Cobb to DAL 46 for 21 yards (29-A.Maddox).
- (3:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Gallup.
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb to PHI 36 for 18 yards (29-A.Maddox).
- (2:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 10-T.Austin to PHI 31 for 5 yards (47-N.Gerry).
- (2:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-A.Cooper to PHI 25 for 6 yards (31-J.Mills).
- (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 19-A.Cooper to PHI 19 for 6 yards (47-N.Gerry).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at PHI 23 for -4 yards (75-V.Curry).
- (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 19-A.Cooper.
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Gallup (22-S.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.20 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.20 pts |
| Curl route | -0.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.46 pts |
| Play action | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.57 pts |
| QB keep | -0.60 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.61 pts |
| Quick out | -0.70 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.71 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.76 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.81 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.98 pts |
| Spike it | -1.05 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.08 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Outside run | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| End-around | -1.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.