Seahawks vs Packers — Week 19, 2019
The Seahawks took over trailing 28-23 with 4:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
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What really happened
Final: Seahawks 23, Packers 28. Packers won 28-23 — the drive turned it over.
Playoff football. Seahawks ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 23, 4:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.7% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 22.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:54) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to SEA 37 for 14 yards (50-B.Martinez).
- (4:13) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 17-M.Turner [55-Z.Smith].
- (4:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 48-J.Hollister to SEA 42 for 5 yards (20-K.King).
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 36 for -6 yards (91-P.Smith).
- (2:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.90 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.04 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.90 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.67 pts |
| QB keep | +0.63 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Deep post | -0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.37 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.12 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.41 pts |
| End-around | -1.49 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.59 pts |
| Spike it | -2.04 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.