Patriots vs Titans — Week 18, 2019
The Patriots took over trailing 14-13 with 4:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
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What really happened
Final: Patriots 13, Titans 20. Titans won 20-13 — the drive turned it over.
Playoff football. Patriots ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 11, 4:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 49.0% for Patriots. Our model starts at 45.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:44) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 28-J.White to NE 31 for 20 yards (59-W.Woodyard).
- (4:03) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-P.Dorsett II to NE 37 for 6 yards (35-T.Brock).
- (3:26) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Edelman.
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 13-P.Dorsett II.
- (3:17) 7-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to TEN 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-R.Davis.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Pull RPO (-1.16 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.31 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Pull RPO | -1.16 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.23 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.35 pts |
| Curl route | -1.45 pts |
| QB keep | -1.74 pts |
| Quick out | -1.76 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.78 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.82 pts |
| Outside run | -1.84 pts |
| Play action | -1.93 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.96 pts |
| Inside run | -1.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.49 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.87 pts |
| Spike it | -2.95 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.19 pts |
| Deep post | -3.29 pts |
| End-around | -4.11 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.83 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.31 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.