Eagles vs Seahawks — Week 18, 2019
The Eagles took over trailing 17-9 with 4:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
This drive is part of Pro — one purchase unlocks every past daily, both classic packs and the full library, on all your devices.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 9, Seahawks 17. Seahawks won 17-9 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Playoff football. Eagles ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 31, 4:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 11.3% for Eagles. Our model starts at 12.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:56) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCown pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Ertz.
- (4:52) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCown pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 48 for 17 yards (21-T.Flowers).
- (4:09) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCown pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Goedert (57-C.Barton).
- (3:56) 18-J.McCown sacked at SEA 17 for -4 yards (98-R.Green).
- (3:15) 26-M.Sanders left end to SEA 16 for 1 yard (50-K.Wright).
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCown pass short left to 26-M.Sanders to SEA 10 for 6 yards (30-B.McDougald; 21-T.Flowers).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCown sacked at SEA 11 for -1 yards (90-J.Clowney).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.71 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.71 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.49 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.48 pts |
| QB keep | +0.42 pts |
| Deep post | +0.35 pts |
| Play action | +0.24 pts |
| Quick out | +0.16 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.67 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.86 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.97 pts |
| End-around | -0.98 pts |
| Spike it | -1.28 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.