Vikings vs Saints — Week 18, 2019
The Vikings took over leading 20-17 with 4:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 37, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
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What really happened
Final: Vikings 20, Saints 20. Tied 20-20 — the drive turned it over.
Playoff football. Vikings ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 37, 4:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.2% for Vikings. Our model starts at 77.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:18) 33-D.Cook left guard to MIN 38 for 1 yard (24-V.Bell; 52-C.Robertson).
- (3:39) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Diggs.
- (3:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at MIN 47 for 9 yards (23-M.Lattimore). Pass 10, YAC -1
- (3:27) 33-D.Cook left end to MIN 39 for -8 yards (53-A.Klein). FUMBLES (53-A.Klein), RECOVERED by NO-24-V.Bell at MIN 38. 24-V.Bell for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 33-D.Cook left end to MIN 40 for -7 yards (53-A.Klein).
- (3:01) 33-D.Cook left tackle to MIN 38 for -2 yards (91-T.Hendrickson).
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 34 for -4 yards (94-C.Jordan).
- (2:10) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to NO 20, Center-58-A.Cutting. 11-D.Harris to NO 30 for 10 yards (31-A.Abdullah; 58-A.Cutting).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.74 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.74 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.19 pts |
| Outside run | +0.18 pts |
| QB keep | -0.21 pts |
| Quick out | -0.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.61 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| Curl route | -1.44 pts |
| Play action | -1.53 pts |
| End-around | -3.78 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.88 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.53 pts |
| Deep post | -6.35 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.97 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.