Bills vs Texans — Week 18, 2019
The Bills took over trailing 19-16 with 4:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
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What really happened
Final: Bills 19, Texans 19. Tied 19-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Playoff football. Bills ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 4:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.6% for Bills. Our model starts at 32.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary pushed ob at HOU 37 for 38 yards (27-M.Adams).
- (4:26) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary up the middle to HOU 31 for 6 yards (20-J.Reid).
- (3:45) 26-D.Singletary right end to HOU 28 for 3 yards (41-Z.Cunningham; 55-B.McKinney).
- (3:05) 17-J.Allen right end to HOU 25 for 3 yards (98-D.Reader).
- (2:22) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right [57-B.Scarlett].
- (2:15) 20-F.Gore left guard to HOU 28 for -3 yards (27-M.Adams, 99-J.Watt).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle [33-A.Moore]. Penalty on BUF-76-J.Feliciano, Illegal Touch Pass, declined. PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at HOU 28.
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 39 for -19 yards (54-J.Martin).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.99 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.63 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.99 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.93 pts |
| QB keep | +0.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.82 pts |
| Quick out | +0.30 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.19 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.09 pts |
| Outside run | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Deep post | -0.69 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.76 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.90 pts |
| Inside run | -1.13 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| End-around | -1.86 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.21 pts |
| Spike it | -2.61 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.63 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.