49ers vs Seahawks — Week 17, 2019
The 49ers took over leading 26-21 with 3:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 26, Seahawks 21. 49ers won 26-21 — the drive turned it over.
49ers ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 21, 3:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.1% for 49ers. Our model starts at 85.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:35) 31-R.Mostert left tackle to SF 24 for 3 yards (30-B.McDougald).
- (2:52) 19-D.Samuel right end to SF 27 for 3 yards (26-Sl.Griffin). PENALTY on SF-63-B.Garland, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at SF 27.
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 31-R.Mostert to SF 30 for 16 yards (91-J.Reed; 26-Sl.Griffin).
- (2:34) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to SEA 27, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.67 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.64 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.67 pts |
| Outside run | +0.05 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.11 pts |
| Inside run | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| QB keep | -0.61 pts |
| Quick out | -0.62 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.68 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.77 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.29 pts |
| Play action | -2.01 pts |
| Curl route | -2.10 pts |
| End-around | -4.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.47 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.23 pts |
| Deep post | -7.45 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.87 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.64 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.