Panthers vs Texans — Week 4, 2019
The Panthers took over leading 13-10 with 4:05 left, 1st & 10 at the Texans 33, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 16, Texans 10. Panthers won 16-10 — the drive scored.
Panthers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. In Texans territory, 4:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.4% for Panthers. Our model starts at 85.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:05) 22-C.McCaffrey left tackle to HOU 32 for 6 yards (55-B.McKinney). HOU-99-J.Watt was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (3:19) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at HOU 29 for 3 yards (55-B.McKinney).
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep right to 13-J.Wright to HOU 12 for 17 yards (21-B.Roby).
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey left guard to HOU 13 for -1 yards (98-D.Reader).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey right guard to HOU 10 for 3 yards (55-B.McKinney; 98-D.Reader).
- (1:18) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey right guard to HOU 8 for 2 yards (99-J.Watt).
- (:31) 4-J.Slye 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.80 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.80 pts |
| Outside run | +0.10 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.11 pts |
| Inside run | -0.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| QB keep | -0.60 pts |
| Quick out | -0.61 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.68 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.76 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| Play action | -2.00 pts |
| Curl route | -2.10 pts |
| End-around | -4.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.45 pts |
| Field goal | -4.88 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.21 pts |
| Deep post | -7.43 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.83 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.