Vikings vs Lions — Week 7, 2019
The Vikings took over leading 35-30 with 3:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 42, Lions 30. Vikings won 42-30 — the drive scored.
Vikings ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.2% for Vikings. Our model starts at 87.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:05) 33-D.Cook right tackle to MIN 30 for 5 yards (91-A.Robinson).
- (3:00) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs to DET 4 for 66 yards (32-T.Wilson).
- (2:07) 33-D.Cook left tackle to DET 4 for no gain (92-K.Strong).
- (2:00) 33-D.Cook up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.68 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.81 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.68 pts |
| Outside run | +0.07 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.12 pts |
| Inside run | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Quick out | -0.62 pts |
| QB keep | -0.64 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.68 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.76 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.79 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.26 pts |
| Play action | -2.06 pts |
| Curl route | -2.18 pts |
| End-around | -4.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.54 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.32 pts |
| Deep post | -7.62 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.81 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.