Cardinals vs Falcons — Week 6, 2019
The Cardinals took over leading 34-33 with 1:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 34, Falcons 33. Cardinals won 34-33 — the drive time expired.
Cardinals ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 25, 1:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 82.5% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 65.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:53) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to ARI 30 for 5 yards (20-K.Sheffield; 37-R.Allen).
- (1:49) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to ARI 30 for no gain (59-D.Campbell).
- (1:45) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end pushed ob at ARI 35 for 5 yards (36-K.Ishmael). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (1:38) 1-K.Murray kneels to ARI 34 for -1 yards.
- (:57) 1-K.Murray kneels to ARI 33 for -1 yards.
- (:22) 1-K.Murray kneels to ARI 32 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.36 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.36 pts |
| QB keep | +1.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.00 pts |
| Curl route | +0.62 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.62 pts |
| Quick out | +0.53 pts |
| Outside run | +0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.39 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| Play action | +0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Inside run | -0.51 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.52 pts |
| End-around | -2.75 pts |
| Deep post | -3.47 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.78 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.